Now that the grammy's are over with...

...we can finally turn our full attention to Oscar. The awards will be announced on February 25th, and even though thats still two weeks away, why not just jump the gun and start speculating about who's gonna win right now?

I figure that if the media is so ADD they get to start covering the 2008 presidential race a whole fucking year early, two weeks notice on the academy awards is hardly premature. I mean, right?

Most people like to guess who will actually win, but I prefer to do Oscar predictions in three catagories: who will actually win, who deserves to win, and who I would personally vote for. I find it more interesting to break it down that way, rather than trying to guess exactly how cynical the academy's mood is this year. It is also a cheap and obscenely transparent attempt at bet-hedging, for which I, admittedly, have much shame...or rather not....


BEST PICTURE
Gonna Win: Babel
Should Win: The Departed
God Win: The Departed

I really want The Departed to win Best Picture, I really do, but I think the academy is going to snub it and go with Babel. I think this because its very likely that the old-school, establishment wing of the academy is going to split their vote between loyalty to scorsese and loyalty to eastwood, while those (the majority) in the middle who care more about sheer quality than politics will very likely go for Babel. Its topical, its smart, its moving, its in several different languages, and these are all traits best picture winners often have. If the academy is willing to go for Crash, they will go for Babel. Its like the international clusterfuck version of Crash, only with less Mexicans, and less Canadians directing it. Letters from Iwo Jima is the Dark Horse here, and it too has a really good shot. Eastwood + Speilberg + Asian "Saving Private Ryan" = Oscar, usually, but there isn't a clear frontrunner, so this could turn out to be a huge suprise.

BEST ACTOR
Gonna Win: Peter O'Toole
Should Win: Peter O'Toole
God Win: Peter O'Toole

Peter O'Toole got his first Oscar nomination when JFK was president, for "Lawrence of Arabia", and in the nearly half century since, he has been nominated now a total of 8 times. This includes his nomination this year for his leading role in "Venus", an independant film that got almost no publicity and was seen by six or seven people who weren't academy voters. In 2003, he recieved an honorary award for his lifetime committment to the craft of acting from the academy for simply being Peter O'Toole. This nomination was no mistake of fate. He was nominated, and will win, because frankly, he's not getting any younger, and its becoming less and less likely he'll ever make another movie, much less one with a legitamately rewardable performance. This is probably the last shot the academy will have to honor him in life, and if they are wise, they will take it. Leo and Will Smith have plenty of time to make another appearence. If Peter weren't in this race, I'd say watch out for Will Smith as the dark horse. He played the kind of part in "The Pursuit of Happiness" that would normally be Oscar gold, but he's got enough time left on the clock that the academy will pass on his second, and probably not last, academy award nomination. Ryan Gosling...puh-leeze...

BEST ACTRESS
Gonna Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Helen Mirren
God Win: Helen Mirren

Yeah, so Meryl Streep plays a really convincing bitch. So what? It was a good movie (a way better book), the performances were spectacular, and don't get me wrong, I love Meryl Streep. But Helen Mirren's portrayal of Queen Elizabeth in "The Queen" was exemplary and a work of pure, genuine, acting. Mirren had the task of portraying one of the most recognizable figures on Earth, knowing that every nuance of her performance would be picked apart to death by both the American and British medias, and dissect her they did. The vast majority of even the toughest critics, even Kenny Turan from the LA Times, were blown away by her honest and simple approach to an insanely complex role. Streep had to play a woman who was so charicaturish and loony that any obnoxious upper east side debutante with white hair, a semblence of fashion sense, and a dog serving as an outfit accessory, could achieve the same soul-crushing bombast that earned Streep the nomination. Really, the character was itself greatly limiting in terms of growth potential, so she didn't have much room for nuance, which is no fault of her own. But with 14 previous nominations, (two wins), three decades of fame, and a darling repore with establishment academy members, Mirren doesn't have a snowballs chance in Satan's asshole of winning. On the other hand, never underestimate the academy's love for surprises in this category.

BEST DIRECTOR
Gonna Win: Clint Eastwood
Should Win: Martin Scorsese
God Win: Martin Scorsese

Nothing gives the academy a fatter collective chubby than shitting all over Marty Scorsese. We know this because he has a perfect losing record at the academy awards. Its their revenge for embarassing the Hollywood establishment by refusing to base his operations in LA. This year could be more interesting. Scorsese won the DGA award this year for best achievement in directing for the first time in his career. He's been nominated seven times for both the DGA award and the Oscar and until that win, he'd won neither (one academy award nomination was for writing, not directing, "The Age of Innocence"). Its possible that the academy might finally give scorsese his due, considering that the winner of the DGA award almost always wins the oscar for directing, but I wouldn't put any kind of money on it...they really hate him... Also, Eastwood already beat Scorsese once before, and given the choice, most academy voters would stick with him. The Departed, however is now the highest grossing film scorsese has ever made, and a lot of that money went to Warner Brothers. Letters from Iwo Jima was partly WB too, and it only made $43.5 million to Departed's $268 million in gross box office. On the other hand, Eastwood's got Speilberg, the weight of Dreamworks, Amblin, probably half of paramount and almost everyone who lives on mulholland drive or in Beverly Hills. This is going to be the most interesting part of the show. Inarritu is the Dark Horse, especially if Babel starts to pick up steam early on.

Supporting Actor/Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, blah blah blah all to come in the days ahead.

Any thoughts?

Cheers